Today the NZD/USD pair continued falling.
The flowing factors are determining further softening of monetary policy in New Zealand: falling dairy products prices, growing trade deficit (649 million NZD in August, which is 450 million higher than in the previous month), increasing unemployment, declining participation rates and business confidence. In the light of these factors, the RNBZ can decide to cut its interest ratesby 0.5% from the current 3% at the next meeting on Thursday.
And as the USD is strengthening across the market, the NZD/USD pair is going to continue falling in the medium-term.
Support and resistance
Lastweekthepairbrokedownthelevelof0.6435 (61.8% Fibonacci)and keeps falling towards 0.6200, 0.6000 (2006 lows), 0.5000 (2009 lows).
At the same time, the breakout and consolidation above the level of 0.6435 would allow the pair to grow to 0.6890 (50% Fibonacci), 0.7000 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour, daily, weekly and monthly charts signal sales.
Support levels: 0.6240, 0.6200.
Resistance levels: 0.6400, 0.6435, 0.6480, 0.6525.
Open short positions from the current levels and from 0.6310, 0.6380, 0.6420with targets at 0.6200, 0.6170, 0.6100 and stop-loss at 0.6490.
Long positions are not considered yet.