Current trend

Turkey satisfies about 70% of its demand for energy from imports and thus its economic conditions and the price of the national currency largely depend on oil prices. The USD/TRY pair has negative correlation with oil prices, which can be seen by comparing its price chart with one for Brent crude oil.

Thus, the Lira was supported by the recent growth in oil prices.

At the same time, the pair was pressured by a fall in the USD caused by the release of poor labour marker data for September from the US and reduced expectations of an interest rate increase in the US before the end of the year.

Support and resistance

Despite the pair remains in an uptrend since the beginning of 2013, on the weekly and daily charts some signs of a downward correction appeared.

In the beginning of the week, the pair broke down support levels on the 4-hour chart at the levels of 2.9950 (ЕМА144) and 2.9750 (ЕМА200) but the fall stopped at the level of 2.9370 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).

On the weekly, daily and 4-hour charts OsMA and Stochastic signal sales.

Support levels: 2.9370, 2.9100, 2.7800.

Resistance levels: 2.9750, 2.9950, 3.0550.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 2.9230 with targets at 2.9100, 2.8700 and stop-loss at 2.9270.

Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 2.9450 with the target at 2.9900 and stop-loss at 2.9400.

USD/TRY: oil and Lira

USD/TRY: oil and Lira




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