At the beginning of the week, amid lack of important macroeconomic publications, the European currency consolidated near current local highs.
At the same time, after the price rallied at the end of the week, a downward correction was expected. However, it has not started yet due to low US rate hike expectations.
FOMC meeting minutes, published on Thursday, failed to add clarity to the issue. Most of the officials still expect the monetary policy to be tightened until the end of the year; however, at the same time, they refer to macroeconomic indicators which have not been quite favorable. As the risks in the world economy are growing, rate increase is getting likelier to happen no earlier than 2016.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart is growing. The price range is widening actively, but the price remains out of it. MACD is growing and keeping a buy signal. Stochastic has turned horizontally.
According to the indicators, a downward correction is likely to start in the short term; however, a growth is still possible in the long term.
Support levels: 1.1318 (near 2 October local high), 1.1300, 1.1245, 1.1200, 1.1153, 1.1100 (near 23 September low), 1.1035, 1.1000 (strong psychological barrier).
Resistance levels: 1.1360, 1.1400 (near 12 October local high), 1.1459 (18 September local high), 1.1500.
Long positions can be opened at the current levels with targets at 1.1430, 1.1450 and stop-loss at 1.1315. Validity - 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.1300 with the target at 1.1200 and stop-loss at 1.1340.Validity - 1-2 days.