The USD/TRY pair has been growing since the middle of 2014 amid strengthening US Dollar and falling oil prices. Despite some fall in the pair in October due to weakening Dollar as expectations of interest rate hikes in the US before the end of the year were reduced, an upward tendency in the pair remains.
Today attention needs to be paid to the US data on EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, FOMC Member Powell Speech and the TCMB Interest Rate Decision. Due to current weakening in the Lira, the regulator is unlikely to reduce further its interest rates that remain unchanged since February 2015 at 7.5%.
Support and resistance
If a downward correction continues the next target for the pair could be the level of 2.7950 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart). At the same time, a consolidation above the level of 2.9450 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144 and the upper border of a descending channel on the 4-hour chart) would return an upward trend in the pair.
However, the downward correction is nearing its end as both the OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour and daily charts turned to purchases in the beginning of this week.
Support levels: 2.8750, 2.8000, 2.7950.
Resistance levels: 2.9100, 2.9450, 2.9650.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 2.9100 with targets at 2.9220, 2.9500 and stop-loss at 2.8950.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 2.8760 with the target at 2.8400 and stop-loss at 2.8880.