Monday can be called the day of Manufacturing PMI. Today, October data on the index is going to be published in the eurozone, Germany, Canada, the UK and the US. The index is based on surveys of purchasing managers of the biggest national companies and represents their view on the current state of the economy and its future prospects. The threshold in the index is the 50-point mark, figures below which represent manufacturing sector contraction. Data on Markit Manufacturing PMI’s for Germany and the eurozone are due at 10:55 and 11 am (all times stated in GMT +2). Both indexes are expected to stay unchanged at 51.6 and 52 points respectively, therefore remaining above the threshold but dangerously close to it. Similar picture is in the UK, where the index remains near the 52 mark since April this year and is going to be published at 11:30 am. The RBC Manufacturing PMI is due at 4:30 pm. Here, the index stays below the 50 mark for few months now (last figure was 48.6 points) and tends to decline. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is due at 5 pm. However, a number of leading indicators in the US, including the Chicago PMI, have grown thus increasing chances for the general index to grow as well. It is worth noting that the index has been falling for the last four months and in September reached its critical level of 50.2 points.
In addition, on Monday attention needs to be paid to September data on Real Retail Sales from Switzerland that are due at 10:15 am. The index has been falling during this year and there does not seem to be a reason for it to stop its fall. If the index declines again, that would pressure the Franc. On Monday night at 5:30 am, the RBA Interest Rate Decision is due though majority of experts expect the rate to stay unchanged at its current 2%.