Since the opening of today’s trading, American indices are in the narrow range. Market participants are waiting for the release of the US Non-Farm PayRolls in February at 15:30 (GMT+2).

The data is important because it shows the state of the labor market, as well as the situation of the US economy as a whole.

Since last Friday all the US news has been positive: GDP in Q4 was revised from 0.7% to 1.0% (with the forecast of 0.4%). Price index of domestic purchases for Q4 was revised to 1.0% (forecast was 0.8%), core index of personal consumption expenditures was also revised to 1.3% against the forecast of 1.2%, on the annual basis this index amounted to 1.7% against the forecast of 1.2%. The other inflation indices and the index of consumer confidence for February were also above expectations.

Nevertheless, yesterday, market participants were disappointed by weak US news. Business activity index in the service sector PMI from Markit Economics fell below 50 (49.7 against the forecast of 49.8), which can be an indicator of decline in the consumption expenditures.

The USD fell all over the market, the index WSJ fell almost by 0.5%.

Therefore, the data on Non-Farm PayRolls will affect not only movement in the USD but may change investor’s attitude to about the largest economies of the world. The index NFPR will show to the investors if the increase in the interest rate can take place in March or later during the year.

There is no sense to predict movement in the USD and in the stock market prior to the release of NFPR.

If NFPR will be above the forecast of +190 000 new jobs, the USD will go up and American stock market will be in the uptrend.




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