Technical data of the currency pair:
Previous closing: 1.1148;
Daily range: 1.1132-1.1176;
52- week range: 1.0456-1.1713;
Annual revenue: +6.26%;
Change in % for the previous day: -0.21.
- Since the beginning of March Euro has traded in the range of 1.0910-1.1040. In the trading session last Thursday, the currency pair EUR/USD broke down and consolidated above the resistance level of 1.1040. Euro gained by over 280 paints.
- Last Thursday ECB set the level of interest rate at 0.00%, increasing monthly asset repurchase level up to 80 billion EUR. The head of ECN Mr. Mario Draghi said that further decline in the interest rate was not expected.
- Management of ECB also reduced interest rate on deposits to -0.4% and decreased marginal rate by 0.05% to 0.25%.
- “Commitments of Traders” shows that over 58% of large speculators believe in strength of the European currency. 285908 contracts have been opened for long positions and 194588 contracts for short positions.
- The following data is scheduled for the release this week: volume of retail sales in the USA (Tuesday), US Fed interest rate decisions (Wednesday). This data can affect volatility amd movement direction in the market.
- Decline in the interest rate by ECB, ambiguous US macro-economic statistics and slowdown of growth of the global economy as well as high volatility in the market put pressure on the pair. According to “COT” large speculators believe in strength of the European currency.
- It is expected that in the short-term Euro will rise against the USD. It is recommended to open long positions.
Trading tips for the currency pair EUR/USD
Medium-term trading: At the moment the currency broke down and consolidated above the resistance level of1.1040. If this level is maintained and in case of respective confirmation (such as Pattern Price Action), we recommend to open long positions. Risk per trade is not more than 2% of capital. Stop-order can be placed slightly below the signal line. Take profit should be placed in parts at the levels of 1.1190, 1.1280 and 1.1360 with the use of trailing stop.
Short-term trading: on the chart with the timeframe 15M the currency is traded in the range of 1.1085-1.1210. if the price maintenances this gap and tests support levels of 1.1030-1.1085 we recommend to open long positions. Risk per trade is not more than 3% of the capital. Stop order can be placed slightly below the signal line. Take profit can be placed in parts of 1.1100, 1.1160 and 1.1200 with the use of trailing stop.