Mrs. Yellen’s speech on Tuesday triggered the decline in the USD in the world currency markets. With the opening of the trading day today, the decline continued. Investors sell the USD as they believe that the interest rate in the USA will not be raised in the near future.

However, the rise of the national currencies against the USD may worry the national central banks. For example, today, the pair AUD/USD has grown to the new monthly highs, approaching the level of 0.7700. Uncertainty in the financial and economic sectors of the world has convinced the US Fed not to rush with the interest rate increase.

Now, amid expectations that the US Fed will slow down the pace of monetary policy tightening, it is possible that RBA will lower interest rate of Australia at the meeting on 5 April.

Since the beginning of this year the pair has grown by 12% and the rise in the Australian dollar worries the leaders of the central bank of the country. High rate of the national currency is unfavourable for the Australian exporters; it also impedes recovery of the Australian economy.

Continuing rise of the AUD may force the management of RBA to make decision to low interest rate in the country. However, the question is- whether the decrease in the interest rate will help the decline in the price of the Australian dollar? Australian economy is steadily recovering and world prices of oil and commodities have almost reached the bottom, so their further decline is under doubt.

Some economists believe that the decline in the interest rate in Australia may cause short-term decline in the pair AUD/USD amid softer monetary policy of the US Fed.

According to the forecast from “The Commonwealth Bank of Australia”, the pair AUD/USD will be traded at the level of 0.7800 by the end of 2016 but not at 0.7000, as had been expected earlier. By mid-2017 the pair will reach the level of 0.8000, instead of previously expected level of 0.7250.

In the current situation the decline or downward correction in the pair AUD/USD can be only caused by tightening of the monetary policy in the USA. Meanwhile the US Fed is inclined to adhere to the softer policy than had been announced earlier.

If the data on NFPR for March will be below the forecast of +205 000, @bearish@ positions on the USD will increase.

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