Tomorrow at 06:30 (GMT+2) a meeting of the RBA will be held. Since the beginning of the year the pair AUD/USD has grown by 12%, reaching the new high at the level of 0.7720 at the end of March. On the one hand Australian economy is steadily recovering; on the other hand high rate of the national currency is unfavourable for the Australian’s exporters and may impede economic recovery of the country, as it is focused on exports, especially on commodities.

Recent rise of price of the AUD was caused by the rise in oil prices. If oil prices go down due to the latest events, pressure on the AUD can continue. Comments of Janet Yellen about the risks to the economic recovery in the USA, which caused the decline in the USD and in the pair AUD/USD, have already exhausted its effect on the market.

Executives of the RBA may find it difficult to adopt interest rate decision. It is expected that the interest rate will remain unchanged at the level of 2.9%. However, comments on the interest rate decision may cause the decline in the AUD, as well as the indications of possibility of softening of the monetary policy. If the RBA reduces interest rates amid recent decline in the interest rates in New Zealand and comments by Janet Yellen, it will be a surprise to the market participants. In this case, the AUD will sharply go down including the pair AUD/USD. However, keep in mind that the decline in the AUD can be only short-term, a lot will depend on the comments by the RBA.

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