Two polls of the last weekend showed that the number of supporters of staying of the UK in the EU slightly exceeded the number of those who wish to exit from the EU. Survey, conducted by YouGov on Monday, showed the opposite results.
British referendum indicates increasing contradictions in the EU. Exit of the UK from the EU may provoke similar referendums in the other countries.
The number of supporters of the exit from the EU and those who support staying in the Union, is almost equal. The exit of the country from the EU will have a negative impact on the Pound and Euro and on the whole financial market in the world, and may create new global financial crisis.
Uncertainty about the outcome of referendum continues, which means that safe haven assets will be un demand.
On Tuesday, the Australian dollar received support at the Asian session amid positive results of the latest survey on the UK's membership in the European Union.
During the Asian session the Australian stock index S&P/ASX200 has increased by 0.6%, the AUD/USD – has grown by almost 30 points. The pair continued to strengthen during the European session.
According to some economists, if the UK stays in the EU, the Australian currency may rise by 1% -2%, otherwise it may fall by 3%. In May, RBA has lowered interest rates for the first time since June 2015. Now, the key interest rate is at a record low level of 1.75%. Market participants expect that by the end of the year the rate will be reduced again.
Although Australian economy has been developing faster this year than in the previous three years, the country faced deflation in Q1. According to the minutes of the meeting of 7 June, GDP growth in Q1 was by 0.5% higher than expected, while the other indicators remained low. Employment rate has declined and it is likely that inflation will remain low.
If the inflation rate does not reach the target of 2-3%, the RBA can lower interest rates. In its turn, this fact may add pressure on the AUD. Next meetings of RBA will be held at the beginning of July and August