According to the TV commentators, Hillary Clinton was more successful in the TV debate than Donald Trump this week. The difference in approaches the candidates to the economic policy makes the elections important matter for the financial market. Donald Trump has promised tax cut for the companies that could have supported economic growth and the USD. According to some economists, in case of the victory of Donald Trump in the election, the USD will grow by 10% within 12 months. There will be at least two more meetings of the candidates in the TV debates. A candidate, who will be more successful during these debates will indirectly influence on the USD movement until November 8, when elections will be held in the United States.
Supposedly, victory of Donald Trump in the presidential election will increase the uncertainty of economic and geopolitical prospects. In case of Clinton as a president, soft monetary policy will be continued in the country, which will have a positive impact on the American stock market. The fact that Hillary Clinton was more successful in the first TV debate has helped to reduce tension around the price of gold.
At the same time, the last meeting of the US Fed on 21 September, showed that the sharp rise in real rates have not been planned. Probability of the rate hike in December is 52% according to market participants.
At the end of trading day on Tuesday, December futures for gold fell by 1%, to 1330.40 per Troy ounce at COMEX. At the beginning of today's European session spot price of gold was at the level of 1324.00 and the decline in price continues.
Today’s news will include some US data: At 15:30 (GMT+3) the number of orders for durable goods in the USA for August will become known. The forecast is: -1.4% against +4.4% in July. If the forecast proves to be correct, it will have a negative impact on the USD. For 17:00 a speech of Janet Yellen is scheduled, which may increase volatility in the USD and gold will rise sharply.
And also speeches of some key figures of financial world.
At 17:10 - 20:30 speeches by James Bullard, St. Louis Fed governor, Mario Draghi, the head of the ECB, Charles Evans, Chicago Fed governor and Loretta Meister, Cleveland Fed governor and a member of FOMC at 23:35. Mrs Maester supports tight monetary policy in the United States. Her comments often have a positive impact on the USD. So, the evening will be interesting day, and volatility the financial market is likely to increase.