In March the pair NZD/USD has grown by 320 points. The price consolidated above the level of 0.6860 (Fibonacci 23.6% to the global decline since July 2014 from the level of 0.8800). The price rebounded from this level three times in October, December 2015 and in the mid-March 2016. However, this time the price has broken down important resistance level of 0.6770 (ЕМА200) and remains in the ascending channel on the daily chart. On the weekly chart the price has broken the upper line of the descending channel and consolidated above ЕМА50.
On the daily and weekly charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic are in favour of buy positions. Due to comments by Janet Yellen, the pair NZD/USD continues to rise to 0.7240 (Fibonacci 38.2%).
However, be cautious when opening long positions. Pay attention to the following aspects:
- The pair is overbought.
- On 4-hour chart the indicators are reversing to sell positions.
- Today is the first day of the month and important US economic statistics, including labor market data will be released.
- RBNZ РБНЗ plans to continue monetary easing policy.
If the US data, which will be released today from 14:30 to 16:00 (GMT+2) will be positive, the USD will sharply go up. The decline in the pair NZD/USD below 0.6860 may trigger decline in price to 0.6770 (ЕМА200), 0.6700 (ЕМА144) and 0.6650 (lower line of the ascending channel on the daily chart).
Otherwise, on the daily chart the pair will continue to rise up to 0.7240 (Fibonacci 38.2%) in the ascending channel.
Support levels: 0.6860, 0.6770, 0.6700 and 0.6650.
Resistance levels: 0.6900 and 0.6965.
Sell Stop: 0.6870. Stop-Loss: 0.6910. Take-Profit: 0.6800, 0.6770, 0.6700 and 0.6650.
Buy Stop: 0.6940. Stop-Loss: 0.6890. Take-Profit: 0.7000, 0.7100 and 0.7240.