Assumption of the further rise in the pair USD/JPY was not correct. In the previous forecast of 28 March we said that consolidation of the price above the level of 113.65 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144 on 4-hour chart) will confirm the forecast and enable the pair to continue the rise. However, the pair failed to consolidate above the level of 113.65, although the price has broken down this level. Statement by Janet Yellen on 29 March about increasing risks for the American economy and the plan to gradually increase interest rate in the USA, has triggered decline in the USD in the market.
The decline in Tankan indices, which were released today, has increased demand for the Yen as a safe-haven currency and added downward impetus to the pair USD/JPY.
Fundamental data was stronger than the technical analysis. An alternative scenario suggesting break down of support level 113.15 (ЕМА144 on 4-hour chart), 112.70 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144 on the hourly chart) and decline to the recent low at the level of 111.00 proved to be correct
On the hourly, 4-hour and daily charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give signals to sell. The nearest target of decline is at the level of 111.40 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart). In case of the downward scenario the target will be at the level of 108.00 (ЕМА200). The price in price may bring the pair back above the levels of 113.60, 114.30 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart and Fibonacci 23.6%).
Support levels: 112.00, 111.40 and 111.00.
Resistance levels: 113.00, 113.55, 114.30, 115.00 and 116.05.
Sell Stop: 111.85. Stop Loss: 112.30. Take-Profit: 111.40, 111.00 and 110.00.
Buy Stop: 112.70. Stop Loss: 112.30. Take-Profit: 113.10, 113.60, 114.30, 115.00 and 116.05.