Since last July the pair USD/CAD has grown by 4000 points, from the level of 1.0650 to 1.4680. However, starting from 20 January the pair began to fall, which was caused by the decline in oil prices. At that time oil prices approached the level of 27 USD per a barrel of crude oil Brent. Now, the pair USD/CAD has won back most of the losses, trading at the level of 1.2800.
On all time frames from 4-hour to monthly the indicators OsMA and Stochastic show the decline in the pair as oil prices continue to rise in advance of the meeting of the oil producing countries in Doha on 17 April.
If the countries –participants (excluding Iran) agree to freeze oil production, oil prices will continue to rise up to 45 USD per a barrel of crude oil Brent. In this case the pair USD/CAD will go down to Fibonacci 50%, which is near the level of 1.2635 (150 points to go).
Downtrend in the pair USD/CAD may change if the price consolidates above the level of 1.3245 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
As an alternative scenario the pair may break out support level of 1.2635 and go down to the level of 1.2170 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart and Fibonacci 61.8%).
Support levels: 1.2755 and 1.2635.
Resistance levels: 1.2955, 1.3100, 1.3200 and 1.3245.
Trading tips Buy Stop: 1.2820. Stop-Loss: 1.2780. Take-Profit: 1.2900, 1.2955, 1.3100, 1.3200 and 1.3245.
Sell Stop: 1.2750. Stop-Loss: 1.2810. Take-Profit: 1.2700, 1.2635, 1.2600 and 1.2200.