The price of the pair USD/CAD has returned to the highs of January-March, regaining about 50% of the losses caused by the constant rise in the pair since July 2014. Now the pair is traded at the level of 1.2755.
Since July 2014 the pair USD/CAD has grown from 1.0650 to 1.4680, (4000 points). However, starting from 20 January the pair started to fall rapidly. The decline was caused by the rise in oil prices from the level of 27 USD per a barrel of crude oil Brent.
The pair USD/CAD has been declining for the fourth consecutive week. Nevertheless, traders shall be careful opening short positions when the price approaches the level of 1.2635 (Fibonacci 50%). Further rise in oil prices after the meeting in Doha and the increase in oil production in Iran are questionable.
The increasing oversupply will not be balanced by the increase in demand, oil prices will inevitably go down to the level of 30USD a barrel. In this case, the CAD may go back to the downtrend, which has been prevailing in the pair USD/CAD since mid-2011.
On all timeframes the indicators OsMA and Stochastic show the decline in the pair. Therefore, short positions will be preferable.
Downtrend in the USD/CAD pair may develop if the price consolidates above the level of 1.3245 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
In case of breakout of support level of 1.2635 the price can go down to1.2170 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart and Fibonacci 61.8%).
Support levels: 1.2755 and 1.2635.
Resistance levels: 1.2955, 1.3100, 1.3200 and 1.3245.
Buy Stop: 1.2820. Stop-Loss: 1.2780. Take-Profit: 1.2900, 1.2955, 1.3100, 1.3200 and 1.3245.
Sell Stop: 1.2730. Stop-Loss: 1.2780. Take-Profit: 1.2700, 1.2635, 1.2600 and 1.2200.