Review and dynamics
With the opening of European session the USD is losing positions against Euro, Yen and gold. It seems that investors are investing money in the safer assets in advance of the NFPR release.
At the end of March the pair EUR/USD grew up due to weak US macro-economic statistics and positive European data showing the rise in GDP and the decline in unemployment. Since the beginning of this month the pair continues to rise and on Tuesday the pair has reached new annual highs at the level of 1.1615.
However, on Tuesday a pin bar was formed on the daily chart and the price of EUR/USD fell by 110 points, reaching support level of 1.1380 (lows of February).
The pair remains in the ascending channel on the daily and weekly charts with the upper limit near the level of 1.1785 (Fibonacci 38.2%).
On the daily and 4-hour charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give mixed signals. On the daily chart the indicators recommend to open sell positions, on 4-hour chart the indicators are reversing towards the long positions. In case of weak data on the US labor market the pair EUR/USD will continue to rise. After breakout of the level of 1.1485 (highs of October 2015) the pair may continue to rise up to 1.1615, 1.1700, 1.1785 (Fibonacci 38.2%) and 1.1900 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart).
If the data turns out to be better than expected the pair EUR/USD will go down. In this case, support levels will be 1.1380, 1.1325 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci 23.6% to the last wave of decline from the highs of 2014), 1.1220 (ЕМА50 on the weekly chart), 1.1180 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
If the price consolidates below the level of 1.1180, the pair EUR/USD will go back to the downtrend.
Support levels: 1.1380, 1.1325, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1220, 1.1180 and 1.1100.
Resistance levels: 1.1460, 1.1485, 1.1535, 1.1615 and 1.1700.
Sell Stop: 1.1370. Stop-Loss: 1.1420. Targets: 1.1325, 1.1285, 1.1260 and 1.1180.
Buy Stop: 1.1440. Stop-Loss: 1.1390. Targets: 1.1485, 1.1535, 1.1615, 1.1700 and 1.1900.
The pair is in the ascending channel on the daily and weekly charts
On the daily chart the indicators give signals for opening short positions