Review and dynamics
This week the USD is strengthening in the currency market. Since opening of today’s trading session the market is experiencing correction and the USD is going down. The only exception is the pair GBP/USD, which, despite general downtrend, has grown this week due to ORB public poll organized by “The Telegraph”, which showed that 55% of respondents supported membership of the UK in the EU and only 40% voted for the exit of the country from the EU.
Today is Friday, the end of the trading week. The USD has strengthened in the market during the past two days and traders will probably prefer to take profits in the long positions on the USD, which will trigger the decline in the USD at the closing session.
However, uptrend in the USD will continue until the meeting of the US fed meeting on 14-15 June, if US macro-economic data will remain positive.
Today, as part of the short-term correction, the pair EUR/USD can rise up to resistance level of 1.1230 (lower line of the ascending channel on the daily chart), 1.1270 (upper line of the descending channel on 4-hour chart) and 1.1285 (Fibonacci 23.6%).
On the daily, weekly and 4-hour charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give signals for short positions.
The decline in the pair can be caused by breakout of support level of 1.1180, which is close to the moving average lines on the daily chart (ЕМА200, ЕМА144).
Breakout of this level will trigger the decline to support levels of 1.0870 and 1.0750.
As an alternative scenario the pair may go up, after rebounding and consolidating above the level of 1.1335 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart). In this case the pair can go up on the daily chart with the upper limit near the level of 1.1700. After breaking out of resistance level of 1.1485 (highs of October 2015), the pair can continue to rise up to 1.1615, 1.1700, 1.1785 (Fibonacci 38.2%) and 1.1900 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart).
Support levels: 1.1180 and 1.1100.
Resistance levels: 1.1230, 1.1270, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1335, 1.1400, 1.1485, 1.1535 and 1.1615.
Sell Limit: 1.1270, 1.1285 and 1.1300. Stop-Loss: 1.1320. Targets: 1.1200, 1.1180, 1.1100 and 1.1000
Sell Stop: 1.1190. Stop-Loss: 1.1230. Targets: 1.1100 and 1.1000.
Buy Stop: 1.1340. Stop-Loss: 1.1280. Targets: 1.1400, 1.1485, 1.1500 and 1.1600.
In the downward channel
Breakout of the level of 1.1180 is required