Review and dynamics
After yesterday’s publication of the ECB’s monetary policy decision and the speech by ECB President, Mario Draghi, today the pair EUR/USD fell from yesterday’s monthly highs at the level of 1.1325 and went below the resistance level of 1.1285 (Fibonacci 23.6% to the last wave of decline from the highs of 2014).
With the opening of today's trading day the pair EUR/USD is traded in the narrow range near the level of 1.1285, above the key support level 1.1180 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144, ЕМА50 on the daily chart, ЕМА50 on the weekly chart).
In the past three months the pair EUR/USD is moving in the range of 1.1430 and 1.0975. The median line of the range is the level of 1.1180. A narrower range was formed in August. It is located between the levels of 1.1350 and 1.1045. On the weekly chart the pair EUR/USD remains in the ascending channel with the upper limit near the resistance level of 1.1785 (ЕМА144 and Fibonacci 38.2%). On the daily chart a new ascending channel has been formed with the upper limit near the level of 1.1430.
Despite strengthening of the USD in the currency market, the pair EUR/USD is likely to decline slowly. It is also possible that the positive dynamics in the pair will continue amid sales of the European assets (EUR is the funding currency) and the weak US macro-economic statistics, which reduces the likelihood of interest rate rise in the USA in the near future.
The indicators OsMA and Stochastic show mixed signals, demonstrating uncertainty in the pair EUR/USD. Today is the last trading day of the week. Traders take profit in the short positions on the USD. However, the situation in the pair EUR/USD is different.
It is likely, that the pair will continue to move in the ranges shown above, at least until the two-day meeting of the US Fed on September 20-21. The pair is likely to maintain position above the level of 1.1180.
Support levels: 1.1200, 1.1180, 1.1100, 1.1045, 1.0975, 1.0915, 1.0865 and 1.0825.
Resistance levels: 1.1285, 1.1350, 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1485 and 1.1535.
Sell on the market. Stop-Loss: 1.1310. Targets: 1.1200, 1.1180, 1.1100 and 1.1045.
Buy Stop: 1.1320. Stop-Loss: 1.1260. Targets: 1.1350, 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1485 and 1.1535.
In the ascending channel
Above the key level of 1.1180