Review and dynamics
In November the price of gold fell sharply, going down below the key support levels of 1264.00 (ЕМА200 on daily and weekly charts), 1218.00 (lower line of the descending channel on the weekly chart and Fibonacci 23.6% after the decline since October 2012) and 1203.00 (lows of May and the lower line of the descending channel on the daily chart). Pressure on gold continues in anticipation of the rate hike in the United States, which may take place in the near future according to the minutes of FOMC meeting in November, which were released on Wednesday.
On 4- hour, daily, weekly and monthly charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give sell signals. If the price breaks down support level of 1218.00 the decline in the pair XAU/USD may continue and the pair may return to the downtrend, which began in October 2012.
Expected correction with short-term target of 1218.00 (Fibonacci 23.6%, ЕМА200 on the hourly chart and ЕМА50 on 4-hour chart) and 1234.00 did not take place.
Short positions are still preferable.
The targets in case of decline are the levels of 1160.00, 1100.00 (ЕМА144) and 1000.00 (ЕМА200 on the monthly chart).
AS an alternative scenario the pair XAU/USD may go up to the key level of 1264.00, which may happen if the price goes up above the level of 1218.00.
After consolidation of the price above level of 1275.00, long positions on the pair XAU/USD can be opened.
Breakout of the resistance level of 1275.00 may trigger further rise up to the levels of 1305.00, 1324.00 (Fibonacci 38.2%), 1350.00, 1370.00, 1385.00 and 1400.00.
Support levels: 1160.00, 1100.00, 1048.00 and 1000.00.
Resistance levels: 1203.00, 1218.00, 1234.00, 1250.00, 1264.00 and 1275.00.
Buy Stop: 1205.00. Stop-Loss: 1190.00. Targets: 12818.00, 1234.00, 1250.00, 1264.00 and 1275.00.
Sell on the market. Stop-Loss: 1205.00. Targets: 1160.00, 1100.00 and 1048.00.
Breakdown of 1218.00 and 1203.00
Indicators give SELL signals