Review and dynamics
The rise in commodity prices (iron ore and coal) provided support to the Australian dollar. The pair AUD/USD had broken out resistance level of 0.7439 (ЕМА200 the 1 hour chart) and went up above resistance level of 0.7445 (Fibonacci 23.6% after the decline since July 2014).
However, due to the sharp rise in the USD in the currency market, the pair AUD/USD remains below important level of 0.7510 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart, ЕМА50 on the weekly chart).
The pair is still in the descending channel on the daily chart with the lower limit below the level of 0.7315 (lows of November).
It is a short day at the US stock exchanges today. The USD continues to rise despite current correction caused by the profit-taking.
Although the pair AUD/USD is undergoing upward correction, the pair is still below the key level of 0.7445, as pressure on the pair continues. Breakout of this resistance level may trigger further rise in the pair AUD/USD up to the level of 0.7510 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
If the rise continues and the price consolidates above the level of 0.7510, the pair may go up to the levels of 0.7700 0.7775, 0.7820 (Fibonacci 38.2% and highs of April), 0.7960 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart) and 0.8130 (Fibonacci 50.0% and ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
In case of the decline in the pair and breakdown of the level of 0.7315, next target will be at the level of 0.7140 (lows of May).
On 4 hour and daily charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give signals for long positions. However, on the weekly and monthly charts the indicators suggest to open sell positions.
Breakdown of the two key support levels of 0.7525, 0.7445 may stop upward correction after the decline since July 2014. The lows are close to the level of 0.6835.
Support levels: 0.7375, 0.7315, 0.7290, 0.7200 and 0.7140.
Resistance levels: 0.7445, 0.7460, 0.7510, 0.7600, 0.7700, 0.7750 and 0.7820.
Sell on the market. Stop-Loss: 0.7470. Take-Profit: 0.7410, 0.7375, 0.7315, 0.7290, 0.7200 and 0.7140.
Buy Stop: 0.7480. Stop-Loss: 0.7410. Take-Profit: 0.7510, 0.7600, 0.7700, 0.7750, 0.7820, 0.7900 and 0.7960.
In the descending channel
The pair will again go below 0.7445