Review and dynamics

The USD is declining in the market. Although Australian macro-economic statistics are weak, the pair AUD/USD has been growing for the third consecutive week. The rise in commodity prices provides support to the commodity currency. The pair AUD/USD has developed uptrend after breakout of the level of 0.7445 (Fibonacci 23.6% after the decline since July 2014) and reached the key resistance level of 0.7510 (ЕМА200 on the 4 hour and daily charts).

However, meanwhile, the pair remains in the descending channel on the daily chart with the lower limit below the level of 0.7315 (lows of November) and near 0.7230.

On the weekly chart the pair AUD/USD also remains in the descending channel.

 

Our opinion

On the weekly and monthly charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give sell signals. On the 4 hour and daily charts Stochastics also started to give sell signals.

If the price rebounds from the level of 0.7510, the pair AUD/USD may fall to support level of 0.7445; if the decline continues and the price breaks down the levels of 0.7375 and 0.7315, next target will be at the level of 0.7140 (lows of May).

As an alternative scenario, after the consolidation of the price above the level of 0.7510, the pair may rise to the levels of 0.7700, 0.7775 and 0.7820 (Fibonacci 38.2% and highs of April) or 0.7920 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart) and 0.8130 (Fibonacci 50.0% and ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).

Support levels: 0.7445, 0.7375, 0.7315, 0.7290, 0.7200 and 0.7140.

Resistance levels: 0.7510, 0.7600, 0.7700, 0.7750 and 0.7820.

Trading tips 

Sell on the market. Stop-Loss: 0.7520. Take-Profit: 0.7445, 0.7375, 0.7315, 0.7290, 0.7200 and 0.7140.

Buy Stop: 0.7520. Stop-Loss: 0.7480. Take-Profit: 0.7600, 0.7700, 0.7750 and 0.7820.

081216-AUDUSD-D

Near the level of 0.7510

081216-AUDUSD-H4

Stochastic gives SELL singals




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