The key event of last week is the UK referendum, which has destabilized the global financial markets. Official results showed that 51.9% of the votes were of the exit from the EU and 48.1% votes were against this.
After the announcement of the results of the referendum last Friday, the pair GBP/USD fell by 12% from the session’s highs at 1.5018 to the lows since 1985 at the level of 1.3224. On Monday morning the pair dropped by 2.5%, to 1.3355. World stock markets collapsed. European index StoxxEurope600 fell by 7.0%, which was the most significant decline since the financial crisis of 2008. The British index FTSE 250 fell by 7.2%, showing its worst one-day result in a few decades. The German DAX fell by 6.8% and France's CAC-40 lost 8%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Average fell by 7.9%. At the same time, the price of gold sharply went up. Demand for the Japanese yen has also sharply increased, particularly in the pairs with the Euro and Pound. In order to stabilize the situation and prevent sharp rise in Franc, Swiss National Bank intervened into the foreign exchange market.
Now, there is uncertainty in the currency market, as it is not clear what will be future development of the financial markets and economies in Europe and the UK. British Minister of Finance, Mr. Osborne said today that uncertainty will affect the economy, public finances; British economy will have to adjust to a new situation.
This week, important macro-economic statistics will be as follows:
15:45 (GMT+2) – Markit preliminary business activity indices in the USA for June.
After 16:30 – results of stress tests banks in the USA, on the reaction of the US largest banking organizations on various financial situations and primarily, on the results of the UK referendum. Positive results of this test will strengthen the USD.
19:30 – speech by the head of ECB, Mr. Mario Draghi. It will be interesting to know his opinion on the outcome of the referendum and future actions of ECB.
14:30 – 15:00 – US macro-economic statistics, including GDP in Q1; according to the forecast, GDP will grow by 1.0%), indices of personal consumption expenditures, retail sales, housing prices, reflecting the level of inflation in the country.
16:00 – US confidence index for June.
22:30 – American petroleum Institute (API) will publish report on changes in the US oil reserves for the past week.
01:50 – Japanese retail sales for May.
08:00 – GfK consumer confidence index for July. This is a leading indicator, assessing the level of consumer confidence in economic growth of the country.
08:00 – UBS index of consumption of Switzerland for May (The index consists of 5 components: sales of new cars, level of activity in the retail sales sector, number nights of reserved in the Swiss hotels, consumer confidence level and the volume of credit card transactions).
10:30 – UK data for May, including consumer credit and approved mortgage applications.
11:00 – index sentiment of business climate in various sectors of the European economy, consumer confidence index for June. 14:30 – US inflation indices for May (personal income/spending, personal consumption). In case of positive data the USD will go up.
16:00 – the number of pending contracts on housing sales for May, is one of the most important indicators of the state of the US real estate market.
16:30 – US Department of Energy will issue report on oil and oil products reserves in the US warehouses.
01:05 – GfK consumer confidence index in the UK for June. This is a leading indicator, showing the level of confidence of the consumers into economic activity.
01:50 – Preliminary Japanese industrial production for in May.
09:00 – KOF index of leading indicators in Switzerland for June. This index is an indicator of economic stability in Switzerland.
09:55 – Unemployment rate in Germany for June.
10:30 – British GDP in Q1 (2% - a quarter earlier).
11:00 – consumer price index in Eurozone for June. This index is a key indicator assessing inflation. Positive index will boost the rise in EUR.
13:30 – information about the last meeting of ECB devoted to the monetary policy and review of changes to the financial, economic and monetary policy of ECB.
14:30 – initial applications for unemployment benefits in the USA for the past week.
14:30 – Canadian GDP for April.
15:45 – Chicago business activity index (in the States of Illinois, Indiana and Michigan, USA) for June. A result above 50 points will be favorable for the USD and Vice versa. In May, the index was at the level of 49.3.
01:30 – Japanese price indices for May-June, household spending unemployment rate for May.
1:30 – AiG activity index in the manufacturing sector of Australia, indicating business conditions in the manufacturing sector in Australia. A if the index exceeds 50 points, it will be a favorable factor for AUD, and Vice versa (previous value was 51 points).
01:50 – Tankan PMI in the various sectors of Japanese economy In Q2.
03:00, 03:45 – PMI in the various sectors of Chinese economy for June
09:15 – volume of retail sales in Switzerland (on annual basis) for June.
09:55 – Markit PMI in the manufacturing sector of Germany for June. PMI shows the state of the German.
10:00 – Markit PMI in the manufacturing sector of Eurozone for June.
11:00 – Unemployment rate in Eurozone for May (a month ago the rate was at the level of 10.2%).
15:45 – Markit PMI in the manufacturing sector of the USA for June.
16:00 – Important indices of the US economy: index of gradual acceleration of inflation and ISM in the US manufacturing sector for June.
19:00 – Baker Hughes report on the number of active drilling platforms in the United States. This data is an important indicator of activity in the US oil sector, which affects oil prices.