Due to the rise in oil prices last week, commodity currencies such as Canadian, Australian and New Zealand’s dollars have grown. The RBNZ had lowered interest rate by 0.25% to 2.0% and indicated that further monetary easing in the country is possible. In response to this decision statement, the NZD sharply rose in the market. However, by the end of last week New Zealand’s currency lost its positions.
European statistics released last Friday (GDP and price indices), showed slowdown of the economic growth in Europe in Q2. Inflation rate in Eurozone is also near the value of zero.
Oil prices started to rise after OPEC statement about informal meeting in September, which increased market participants’ hopes that restrictions on the oil production would be introduced and the report by International Energy Agency (IEA) that global inventories of crude oil could decline in the second half of the year.
Macro-economic statistics and news of this week are as follows:
23:30 (GMT+3) – a speech by Graeme Wheeler, the head of the RBNZ.
04:30 – minutes from the RBA meeting.
11:30 – British price indices for July, including retail, consumer and producer price indices. Consumer price index is the key indicator of inflation, which affects monetary policy decisions of the Bank of England.
12:00 – Index of business sentiment and expectations in Germany and Eurozone for August; Eurozone’s trade balance for June.
15:30 – US consumer price index and started home construction in July.
16:15 – Industrial production in the U.S. for July.
23:30 – American petroleum Institute (API) report on change in oil reserves in the USA for last week.
01:45 – unemployment rate in New Zealand for Q2. It is expected that the index will decline by 0.5%, to 5.2%, which will have a positive impact on the NZD. However, the rise in the New Zealand’s currency will be limited by the intentions of the RBNZ to continue monetary policy easing.
12:00 – ZEW index of economic expectations in Switzerland for August.
17:30 – Weekly report by the US Department of Energy on oil and oil products reserves.
21:00 – minutes of the FOMC meeting, which may contain guidance on future monetary policy of the US Fed. The minutes are important for determining of the future monetary policy and the prospect of the interest rate increase by the US Fed. According to the futures on interest rate, the probability of a rate hike in September in the United States is 12%. However, market may underestimate plans of the US Fed on this matter.
04:30 – Australian labor market data for July. It is expected that unemployment rate in July will remain unchanged at the level of 5.8%.
12:00 – consumer price index in Eurozone for July. It is expected that the index will decline by 0.5%, which will have a negative impact on the Euro.
14:30 – report on ECB's monetary policy meeting in July.
15:30 – initial applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. for the last week.
17:00 – US leading indicators indices for July.
09:00 – German producer price index for July.
11:30 – Net borrowings report in the public sector in the UK. Surplus of the national accounts in the UK will be a positive factor for the GBP and Vice versa.
15:30 – Canadian consumer price indices for July.
20:00 – Baker Hughes, oilfield services company’s report on the number of operating drilling rigs in the USA, which is an important indicator of activity in the US oil sector, which has a strong impact on the oil prices. Currently, the number of operating rigs is 396.