The final event of last week was the meeting between OPEC and the oil-producing countries outside the cartel in Vienna. The outcome of the meeting was the decision to reduce oil production by 558 thousand barrels per day.
At the opening of the trading session this Monday the price of crude oil Brent has grown by 4.2%, up to level of $56.55 per barrel.
The USD has been declining since the opening of today’s trading day against all major currencies except the Yen. However, the decline is probably the after rapid rise last Friday. Market participants will wait for the interest rate decision in the USA, which will be adopted at the two-day Fed meeting on 13-14 December. According to CME Group, probability of the rate hike is 97%.
Macro-economic statistics and important news of this week are as follows:
22:00 (GMT+3) – monthly US fiscal report for November.
03:30 – housing price index in Australia for Q3.
05:00 – Chinese macro-economic statistics for in November/December including: industrial production and retail sales for November. Chinese economy is the second largest in the world after the USA. Therefore, publication of important macro-economic indicators of this country has a significant impact on global financial markets, and on the position of the Yuan and other Asian currencies, the USD and commodity currencies, as well as Chinese and Asian stock indices.
10:00 – German consumer price index for November.
12:30 – Final British inflation indices for November (producer price index and consumer price index). These indices, in addition to GDP, are the main factors affecting monetary policy decisions by the Bank of England. Consumer price index is the key indicator of inflation rate. Movement in the Pound and in the index FTSE100 of the London stock exchange will depend on this index. It is expected that consumer price index will increase by +0.2% on monthly basis and by +1.1% on annual basis.
16:30 – US indices of import/export prices for November.
00:30 – American Petroleum Institute (API) will issue report on changes to oil reserves for the last week.
02:30 – Westpac consumer confidence index in Australia for December.
02:50 – most important Japanese macro-economic statistics indicating economic growth in the country: Tankan indexes of business activity in the service sector and activity of the major manufacturers. Volatility may sharply increase in the Yen and in Japanese stock market.
07:30 – Japanese industrial production for October.
10:45 – consumer price index in France for November.
13:00 – industrial production in the Eurozone for October.
16:30 – US macro-economic data for November, including retail sales and producer price index. Retail sales are the main indicator of consumer spending in the United States, showing changes to sales in the retail trade.
17:15 – industrial production and capacity utilization in the US for November.
18:30 – US Department of energy will issue weekly report on oil and oil products stocks
22:00 – interest rate decision by the US Fed and comments of the Fed. Probability of the rate hike is 97%. Current level of the interest rate is 0.5%.
22:30 – press conference of FOMC, which lasts for about an hour. Fed Chairman Janet Yellen will shed light on future plans of the financial regulator and give forecast for inflation, employment, economic growth and interest rates in the United States.
00:30 – index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand for December.
03:00 – Melbourne Institute in Australia forecast of consumer price index for December.
03:30 – Australian labour market data for November. This data usually has a strong influence on the Australian dollar. The RBA Bulletin will be issued at the same time.
09:45 – SECO forecast of development of Swiss economy, which is an indicator of economic activity in the country.
10:30 – interest rate decision by the SNB. The Central Bank of Switzerland adheres to soft monetary policy in the country and believes that the national currency is overvalued. Recently, the franc has largely lost its status of safe -haven currency due to the threats of intervention by the SNB, which prevents excessive rise in the Franc. Current deposit rate is -0.75%. After the announcement of the interest rate decision there will be a press conference of the SNB. Volatility in the foreign exchange market will go up.
11:30 – Markit preliminary index of business activity in Germany for December.
12:00 – Markit preliminary index of business activity in Eurozone for December.
12:30 – retail sales in the UK for November.
15:00 - interest rate decision by the Bank of England. It is likely that the rate will be left at the current level of 0.25%. Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England will show the balance of votes for and against raising/lowering of the interest rates. The main problems, which the UK may face after Brexit is slowing down of economic growth in the country, and the large deficit of current account payment balance. However, there is an improvement in the UK economic statistics, which means that the UK economy has survived after Brexit. Further actions of the Bank of England will be of great interest. There are a lot of trading opportunities in the trade of the Pound and the index FTSE100 during the period of publication of the interest rate decision and the subsequent press conference
16:30 - initial applications for unemployment benefits in the USA for the last week. A week ago the number was 258 000. Important US macro-economic indicators including: Philadelphia Fed index of business activity in the manufacturing sector for December and consumer price index for November.
17:45 – Markit PMI in the US manufacturing sector for November.
19:15 – speech of the head of the Bank of Canada Mr. S. Poloz. Volatility in the Canadian dollar may increase.
10:00 – wholesale price index in Germany for November.
13:00 – macro-economic data of Eurozone including trade balance for October and consumer price index for November.
16:30 – started housing construction in the U.S. for November.
21:00 - report on the active drilling rigs by the US oilfield services company Baker Hughes. This index is an important indicator of activity in the US oil sector. This index has a significant impact on the oil prices. At the moment the number of active rigs in the U.S. is 498.